Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D7 0xd7f6…4779 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+6%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$15
other 38% $0
crypto 12% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.0% -3.1% 75% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 4 +7.0% -3.1% 75% 50% -0.1%
≤90d 4 +7.0% -3.1% 75% 50% -0.1%
all 4 +7.0% -3.1% 75% 50% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 50% -0.1%
10% -12.4% 50% -9.6%
15% -20.9% 50% -18.4%
20% -28.6% 25% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 96¢ 97¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $15 +$13 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.87 · official $71.73 (match) · 17 history records