Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd7f8…89e4
world · 13 markets active 8h ago
0.0score
+$2,452,927 +1344%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30,766 · open +$25,178
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85,898
Realized−$30,766
Unrealized+$25,178
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage88d
Avg bet$14,037
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 11 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$601
7 days+$601
14 days+$601
30 days+$601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 26¢ 40¢ $29,963 $46,611 +$16,648 (+56%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 18¢ 42¢ $8,177 $19,306 +$11,129 (+136%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7,000 $7,500 +$500 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 24¢ 16¢ $9,796 $6,267 −$3,528 (-36%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3,009 $3,252 +$243 (+8%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $1,680 $1,704 +$24 (+1%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $740 $1,157 +$416 (+56%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $331 $56 −$275 (-83%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $15 $33 +$18 (+117%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+32%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,787 +$601 +34%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 03 $505 +$154 +30%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $111,754 −$5,808 -5%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 12 $29,000 −$29,000 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Mar 31 $2,700 −$400 -15%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 23 $6 +$3,074 +48986%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 22 $950 +$614 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 85% −$18,139
other 9% −$2,869
economics 5% +$14,819
politics 1% +$601
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $24 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $3,816 7h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos SELL Yes 3¢ $18 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $53 7h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,265 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $318 7h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,388 7h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 15¢ $15 7h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 15¢ $226 7h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 15¢ $771 7h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+250.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +33.6% +20.9% 100% 100% +20.9%
≤30d 1 +33.6% +20.9% 100% 100% +20.9%
≤90d 7 +286.9% +250.1% 57% 57% -30.3%
all 7 +286.9% +250.1% 57% 57% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +250.1% 57% -30.3%
10% +216.6% 57% -37.0%
15% ← realistic here +186.0% 29% -43.1%
20% +158.0% 29% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85,897.71 · official $85,898.29 (match) · 3500 history records