Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D7 0xd7f9…d3b0 crypto 1069 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (245 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-1%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%571W / 498L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day244.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$119
14 days−$665
30 days−$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$508
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (245 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -2.0% -11.4% 58% 58% -13.3%
≤30d 1069 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 53% -11.9%
≤90d 1069 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 53% -11.9%
all 1069 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 53% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover244.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 53% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 49% -20.3%
15% -29.5% 42% -28.0%
20% -36.4% 35% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses571 / 498
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1069 / 1069
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day244.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1069 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$16 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $39 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $39 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$15 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$17 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$26 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$18 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$31 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $56 −$24 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $66 +$20 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$17 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$21 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $35 −$13 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $54 −$29 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$20 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $64 −$29 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $61 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$28 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$27 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$27 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$20 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $64 −$13 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$23 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$27 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$18 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$17 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $38 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$10 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $64 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records