Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7fe…0d9b other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$52 (+13%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 35L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% $0
sports 36% +$52
politics 16% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 3% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% +2.8%
10% -18.4% 3% -7.0%
15% -26.3% 3% -16.0%
20% -33.5% 3% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$0 · ×1647.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×149.78 per $1 lost it wins $149.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage545d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Oct 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jul 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Brewers vs. Reds Jun 04 $56 +$52 +92%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 24 $9 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 28 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 17 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 59m
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 59m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $8 23d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $8 23d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 48d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 51d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 78d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 78d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 89d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 91d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 113d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 113d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 141d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 141d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 177d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 177d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 203d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 203d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $9 230d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $9 230d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 258d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 260d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 299d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 299d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 299d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 305d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 305d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 329d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 329d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? SELL No 99¢ $7 335d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records