Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd802…f912 crypto 1395 markets active 9h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,657 (+39%) realized +$2,674 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%619W / 768L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$267
other 3% −$121
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -33.5% -39.8% 44% 33% -28.3%
≤30d 418 -20.1% -27.7% 29% 26% -25.9%
≤90d 1354 -5.9% -14.8% 45% 41% -5.2%
all 1387 -6.0% -15.0% 45% 41% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 41% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 38% -16.2%
15% -30.6% 37% -24.3%
20% -37.4% 37% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2,674
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses619 / 768
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1387 / 1395
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$20 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$9 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$20 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$7 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$3 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$28 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$4 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $11 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.88 (match) · 3500 history records