Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D8 0xd805…d43e world 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$89 (-12%) realized −$88 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$54
finance 23% −$174
other 22% +$105
crypto 13% −$1
culture 9% −$65
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +66.2% +50.3% 100% 100% +49.4%
≤30d 2 +66.2% +50.3% 100% 100% +49.4%
≤90d 3 +71.4% +55.1% 100% 100% +55.2%
all 13 -19.4% -27.0% 38% 38% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 38% -22.1%
10% -34.0% 38% -29.5%
15% -40.4% 38% -36.3%
20% -46.2% 38% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$43 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage291d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $61 +$43 +70%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $102 +$83 +82%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 10 $134 −$134 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $20 +$36 +178%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$31 +156%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jan 29 $33 −$33 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 08 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Trump resign today? Sep 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 2d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 101d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $56 111d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 141d
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 162d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 162d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 162d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 166d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 254d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 254d
Will Trump resign today? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 290d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.11 · official $99.12 (match) · 21 history records