Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd805…d22d sports 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$395 (-8%) realized −$395 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%97W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$76
14 days−$109
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$233
other 17% −$172
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.3% -10.7% 77% 19% -15.7%
≤30d 104 -9.8% -18.4% 63% 30% -16.6%
≤90d 157 -11.1% -19.6% 60% 32% -17.8%
all 160 -10.2% -18.7% 61% 34% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 34% -17.6%
10% -26.5% 30% -25.5%
15% -33.6% 25% -32.7%
20% -40.1% 16% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$395
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses97 / 63
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 165
History coverage165d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 22 $65 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +64%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$19 +365%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 21 $75 $0 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-3.5) Jun 20 $101 $0 +0%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 +$8 +52%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Spread: Australia (-3.5) Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-3.5) Jun 19 $102 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) Jun 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Jordan (-3.5) Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 +$4 +15%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Spread: Qatar (-3.5) Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 +$4 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +185%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $14 +$6 +47%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $65 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY Egypt 99¢ $65 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 32¢ $10 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 6h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 100¢ $75 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 9h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY Belgium 100¢ $75 9h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $70 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 27h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 28h
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 100¢ $80 28h
Spread: Sweden (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 100¢ $101 46h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $70 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 17¢ $10 2d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $70 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $14 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $40 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Morocco 100¢ $40 2d
Spread: Australia (-3.5) BUY United States 100¢ $40 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-3.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $102 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-3.5) BUY Mexico 100¢ $102 3d
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $108 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 4d
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $80 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records