Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D8 0xd806…8c97 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$3
crypto 22% −$2
other 20% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 25% -8.5%
≤30d 9 -13.4% -21.6% 67% 33% -10.4%
≤90d 9 -13.4% -21.6% 67% 33% -10.4%
all 9 -13.4% -21.6% 67% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 33% -10.4%
10% -29.1% 11% -19.0%
15% -36.0% 11% -26.8%
20% -42.3% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$7 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$15 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $35 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $70 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $28 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $44 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.66 · official $297.66 (match) · 19 history records