Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd808…5437 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$41
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$39
politics 27% −$15
sports 16% −$6
crypto 10% −$7
culture 4% −$8
economics 4% −$3
finance 3% −$15
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 68 -1.1% -10.5% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 120 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 138 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 122
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage100d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $260 −$3 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $9 −$1 -6%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $122 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $391 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 16 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $237 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $145 −$2 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -3%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $160 −$1 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $45 −$12 -27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $450 −$2 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $428 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $341 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $97 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $265 +$2 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $93 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $66 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $54 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $54 7h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 89¢ $61 8h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $62 16h
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 92¢ $8 17h
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 98¢ $9 23h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 23h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 29h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 30h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $42 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $42 44h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $62 44h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $62 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $61 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $61 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $56 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $53 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $54 3d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $52 3d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $53 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.95 · official $65.95 (match) · 488 history records