Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd80a…8e8f tech 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized +$6 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$27
world 16% +$9
sports 16% −$6
other 14% +$9
tech 12% $0
finance 8% −$5
economics 4% +$2
culture 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.1% +2.3% 100% 50% +5.2%
≤30d 2 +13.1% +2.3% 100% 50% +5.2%
≤90d 10 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 10% -9.6%
all 30 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage191d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $90 $77 −$12 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $82 +$5 +6%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 24 $207 +$42 +20%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $82 +$3 +4%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? May 11 $163 −$11 -7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 09 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 03 $28 −$22 -79%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 03 $188 −$5 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $54 −$14 -26%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $124 −$3 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $290 +$2 +1%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $40 −$6 -15%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29? Jan 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 20 Jan 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Jan 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $225 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 18 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $87 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 83¢ $249 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $50 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 69¢ $207 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $85 34d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $152 44d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $163 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $112 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $110 51d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $155 51d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $82 51d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $183 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $188 53d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $82 53d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $40 53d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $121 53d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $292 53d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 99d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 62¢ $124 100d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $54 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $47 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $165 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $12 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $13 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $38 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $11 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $4 100d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $34 100d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 41¢ $40 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.29 · official $77.29 (match) · 171 history records