Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D8 0xd80d…ff50 weather 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d

RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	3	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
all	3	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.4%	0%	-9.4%
10%	-18.1%	0%	-18.1%
15%	-26.0%	0%	-26.0%
20%	-33.3%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 76% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage

Net worth$148

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage76d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 25?	No	100¢	100¢	$142	$142	−$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	53¢	44¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on June 3?	Jun 02	$5	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 17?	May 13	$31	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 15	May 13	$115	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 25?	BUY No	100¢	$142	2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$5	20d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 17?	BUY No	100¢	$31	68d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 15	BUY No	100¢	$115	70d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el	BUY Yes	53¢	$1	76d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.05 · official $148.05 (match) · 7 history records