Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:15:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd810…cf07 politics 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,766 (+1%) realized +$1,766 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,224per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$17
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2,139
politics 37% −$79
sports 14% −$305
world 3% −$3
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$4
tech 1% −$3
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 86 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 2% -8.2%
all 149 -2.6% -11.9% 19% 9% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 9% -8.7%
10% -20.3% 8% -17.4%
15% -28.0% 7% -25.4%
20% -35.1% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,646) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$8 · ×12.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1,094
Realized+$1,766
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,224
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $751 $750 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $344 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 29 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $652 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 23 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,906 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,995 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,079 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $454 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $342 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,935 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,825 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,632 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $62 +$63 +101%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,034 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 02 $435 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,781 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $418 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $412 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $6,038 −$6 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $2,097 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $3,491 −$4 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 20 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,209 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $2,375 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $2,241 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $751 2h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $448 2h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $449 7h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $651 5d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $652 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $474 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $475 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $686 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $591 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $592 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $751 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $752 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $763 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $764 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $763 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $763 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $546 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $547 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $781 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $782 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $454 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $454 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $465 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $465 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $342 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $342 15d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $344 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,094.29 · official $1,094.29 (match) · 507 history records