Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd810…0212
world · 43 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses7 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage256d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $73 −$3 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $61 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $75 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $176 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 23 $25 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 27 $16 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 02 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% −$3
other 26% $0
sports 8% $0
politics 7% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $11 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $59 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $73 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 18h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 42h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $26 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $36 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $42 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $51 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $46 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $67 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.8% -18.4% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 -8.4% -17.1% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 0% -9.9%
all 42 -2.9% -12.1% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 154 history records