Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd812…203f sports 632 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,705 (-0%) realized −$1,706 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%622W / 9L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,028per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$42
14 days+$199
30 days+$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,852
other 8% +$75
crypto 4% +$57
finance 1% +$7
culture 0% +$3
world 0% +$3
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 155 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 541 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.7%
all 631 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$3,262) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$624 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,206
Realized−$1,706
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses622 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)631 / 632
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$2,028
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Beşiktaş Esports 100¢ 100¢ $1,205 $1,206 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $1,831 +$2 +0%
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal Jun 23 $468 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $2,929 +$3 +0%
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe Jun 23 $3,661 +$4 +0%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $3,660 +$4 +0%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $3,660 +$4 +0%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $3,659 +$4 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $3,658 +$4 +0%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $169 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $3,657 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $343 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $3,588 +$4 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $3,656 +$4 +0%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $3,653 +$4 +0%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $3,069 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $2,924 +$3 +0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $3,645 +$4 +0%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $989 +$1 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $2,784 +$3 +0%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $2,366 +$2 +0%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $697 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $2,922 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,944 +$3 +0%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $3,005 +$30 +1%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,644 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,789 +$3 +0%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $2,814 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,642 +$4 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,641 +$4 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,641 +$4 +0%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $2,902 +$29 +1%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $3,627 +$37 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,627 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,626 +$4 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3,625 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $3,624 +$4 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,624 +$4 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,623 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $1,729 +$2 +0%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $2,986 +$3 +0%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1,448 +$1 +0%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $769 +$1 +0%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $3,620 +$4 +0%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $3,620 +$4 +0%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $3,620 +$4 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3,619 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $891 +$1 +0%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $2,893 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Beşiktaş Esports 100¢ $1,205 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 100¢ $760 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 100¢ $215 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 100¢ $250 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 100¢ $11 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 100¢ $2 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 100¢ $33 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 100¢ $4 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 100¢ $556 28h
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 100¢ $60 2d
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 100¢ $15 2d
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 100¢ $13 2d
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 100¢ $5 2d
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 100¢ $15 2d
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 100¢ $205 2d
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 100¢ $155 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 100¢ $2,929 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $371 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $171 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $90 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $1 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $329 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $80 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $342 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $233 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $1,863 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $107 2d
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 100¢ $75 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 100¢ $19 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 100¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,205.69 · official $1,205.69 (match) · 3438 history records