Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd81b…5828 crypto 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$641 (-4%) realized −$641 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%81W / 77L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$83
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$654
other 0% −$56
culture 0% −$36
tech 0% −$20
politics 0% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.3% -13.4% 71% 43% -3.0%
≤30d 15 -10.5% -19.0% 67% 40% -3.5%
≤90d 15 -10.5% -19.0% 67% 40% -3.5%
all 158 -15.8% -23.8% 51% 38% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 38% -12.4%
10% -31.1% 23% -20.8%
15% -37.8% 15% -28.4%
20% -43.9% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$53 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$641
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses81 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage129d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $109 +$36 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $149 −$40 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $139 +$113 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 25 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3PM ET Feb 24 $689 −$497 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2PM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1PM ET Feb 24 $500 +$104 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12PM ET Feb 24 $420 −$133 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11AM ET Feb 24 $210 +$52 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8AM ET Feb 24 $172 +$382 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5AM ET Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 23 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 23 $126 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 23 $100 −$39 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 23 $230 +$30 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 23 $200 +$124 +62%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$109 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 23 $160 −$158 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 23 $15 +$41 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 23 $70 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 23 $70 +$17 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 23 $5 +$3 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 23 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $171 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $145 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $109 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $48 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $109 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $115 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 1¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records