Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd81c…4a02 other 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 218L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$37
sports 21% −$15
culture 8% −$8
politics 8% −$7
economics 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 228 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage129d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $145 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $761 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $383 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $420 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $238 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $356 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $321 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $324 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 4h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 20h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 21h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 24h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 26h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 27h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 29h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 31h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 32h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 33h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $13 35h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $13 36h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 40h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 41h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 44h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 46h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1347 history records