Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd81d…dcb4 crypto 456 markets active 4h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-4%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate39%180W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$15
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -6.3% -15.2% 39% 20% -15.3%
≤30d 456 -9.2% -17.9% 39% 21% -19.2%
≤90d 456 -9.2% -17.9% 39% 21% -19.2%
all 456 -9.2% -17.9% 39% 21% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 21% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 11% -27.0%
15% -32.9% 4% -34.0%
20% -39.5% 1% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses180 / 276
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 908 history records