Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D8 0xd81d…20f7 crypto 1192 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 534d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,685 (-2%) realized −$2,239 · open +$554
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%593W / 563L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$49
14 days+$845
30 days+$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$324
other 15% −$2,161
sports 3% −$438
politics 1% −$44
tech 1% −$9
finance 1% −$31
culture 0% +$27
economics 0% −$11
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.8% -27.4% 26% 26% -20.0%
≤30d 62 -31.5% -38.1% 32% 32% +13.3%
≤90d 117 -4.5% -13.6% 37% 37% +1.0%
all 1156 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 45% -13.2%
10% -19.2% 39% -21.5%
15% -27.0% 32% -29.1%
20% -34.1% 23% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$29 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$2,928
Realized−$2,239
Unrealized+$554
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses593 / 563
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1156 / 1192
History coverage535d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 1156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 76¢ $452 $765 +$313 (+69%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,350 Week of June 22 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $196 $201 +$5 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 54¢ 88¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $158 $152 −$6 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $156 $146 −$10 (-7%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 73¢ 97¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 78¢ 97¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 42¢ 99¢ $50 $118 +$68 (+136%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 40¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 Week of June 22 2026? No 66¢ 67¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? No 65¢ 96¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? No 66¢ 96¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 69¢ 85¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 2026? No 55¢ 64¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 28¢ 56¢ $28 $56 +$28 (+102%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $58 $55 −$3 (-5%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 28¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $32 $42 +$10 (+31%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $24 $16 −$8 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $21 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$26 +510%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $51 +$27 +52%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$41 +79%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $63 +$37 +58%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $307 +$963 +313%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $51 +$29 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 07 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $101 +$19 +18%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $108 in June? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $101 +$46 +45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $51 +$23 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $61 +$16 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $101 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,350 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 80¢ $202 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 55¢ $51 2h
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 7¢ $5 2h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 66¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? BUY No 28¢ $21 20h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 20h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 20h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 27h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 45h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 45h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $161 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $163 3d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $202 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,927.71 · official $2,928.23 (match) · 3500 history records