Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd81e…4e57
crypto · 1678 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$339 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$339 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$0
Realized−$339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses1028 / 701
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1729 / 1678
History coverage185d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 0 History 1729 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$269
14 days−$324
30 days−$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-12-19? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-03? Yes 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Canucks vs. Kraken Kraken 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Yes 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Predators vs. Blues Predators 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Canucks Ducks 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Hornets Bulls 58¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will VfL Bochum win on 2025-12-20? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Thunder Thunder 60¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Yes 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-12? Yes 44¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-12-13? Yes 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Kocaelispor win on 2025-12-07? Yes 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2025-12-13? Yes 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Yes 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Hornets Hornets 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Wild vs. Oilers Oilers 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29? Yes 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Canadiens Avalanche 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Cavaliers 70¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2025-12-25? Yes 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kocaelispor win on 2025-12-07? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Hawks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-12-01? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-29? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-26? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-30? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-29? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-02? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-01? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Heracles Almelo win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-28? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Raptors vs. 76ers Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-01? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-24? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-29? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-12-05? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. FCSB end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Kings vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jun 12 $2 −$3 -150%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. Celtics Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Celta Vigo vs. Espanyol end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Magic Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-06? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$180
other 10% −$30
sports 9% +$2
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 671 -7.9% -16.7% 61% 28% -20.4%
≤30d 1092 -4.7% -13.8% 66% 33% -17.8%
≤90d 1092 -4.7% -13.8% 66% 33% -17.8%
all 1729 -4.1% -13.2% 59% 39% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 39% -16.9%
10% -21.5% 31% -24.8%
15% -29.1% 27% -32.1%
20% -36.0% 24% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records