Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd81f…618e politics 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,001 (+2%) realized +$2,001 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%32W / 91L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$916per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$58
other 36% +$2,236
sports 17% −$187
crypto 1% +$2
world 1% −$2
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 +2.8% -7.0% 9% 2% -6.7%
all 123 -3.9% -13.0% 26% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 7% -7.9%
10% -21.4% 7% -16.7%
15% -29.0% 7% -24.8%
20% -35.9% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,330) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$11 · ×8.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,001
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses32 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage147d
Avg bet$916
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $617 +$4 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,715 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,429 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,478 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,899 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $236 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $383 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $5,315 −$6 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,657 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 01 $646 +$1 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $334 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $332 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,159 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $960 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,344 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $4,371 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $2,659 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,178 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 23m
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $290 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $290 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $236 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $237 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $217 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $217 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $617 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $576 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $576 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $652 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $955 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $956 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $923 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $924 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $926 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $928 16d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $973 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $975 20d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $826 21d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $828 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $730 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $731 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $945 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $946 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $841 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records