Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd821…cff3 politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% $0
other 25% −$1
tech 10% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage107d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $86 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $86 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $86 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $86 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $86 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 08 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $84 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $84 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $84 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $85 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $85 24d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $85 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $85 36d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $85 40d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $85 40d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $85 41d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $85 42d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 47d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 48d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 50d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 50d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $86 65d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $86 66d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $86 68d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 69d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $86 71d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 72d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $86 76d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $86 77d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 80d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 81d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $86 85d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 86d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 86d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $86 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records