trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 33% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 30% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 30% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 28 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 36% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 19¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+12%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 69¢ | 57¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $50 | −$1 | -1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $25 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 30 | $48 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 28 | $51 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? | Dec 16 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Dec 15 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? | Dec 15 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 02 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 06 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 03 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 03 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? | Jul 01 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? | Jun 26 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Pope be from Oceania? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 15 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Apr 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 26 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |