Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd825…a76e crypto 451 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14,409 (+17%) realized +$14,728 · open −$319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate52%359W / 337L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day63.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,289
economics 3% −$235
other 0% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 -74.6% -77.0% 6% 3% -91.9%
≤30d 375 -56.6% -60.7% 26% 10% -67.5%
≤90d 696 -30.2% -36.8% 52% 23% -38.0%
all 696 -30.2% -36.8% 52% 23% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 23% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 6% -43.9%
15% -48.4% 2% -49.3%
20% -53.5% 1% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$134 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$2,825
Realized+$14,728
Unrealized−$319
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses359 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)696 / 451
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$189
Trades / day63.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $2,620 $2,385 −$235 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 80¢ 76¢ $240 $229 −$10 (-4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Down 72¢ 100¢ $67 $92 +$26 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 31¢ 24¢ $62 $47 −$15 (-24%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $95 $42 −$52 (-55%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $70 $28 −$42 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 278 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2AM ET Jun 26 $357 −$357 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 11AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10PM ET Jun 26 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 10PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday? Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 6PM ET Jun 26 $76 −$236 -310%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 28, 12AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4PM ET Jun 26 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $221 −$221 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 1AM ET Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET Jun 26 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 19, 3PM ET Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 3PM ET Jun 26 $356 −$356 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 2AM ET Jun 26 $165 −$165 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 5AM ET Jun 26 $190 −$190 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 3PM ET Jun 26 $233 −$233 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 11PM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 2PM ET Jun 26 $287 −$290 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12AM ET Jun 26 $467 −$467 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 5PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 8PM ET Jun 26 $151 −$151 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 2PM ET Jun 26 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8PM ET Jun 26 $380 −$380 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 9PM ET Jun 26 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3PM ET Jun 26 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$7 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 6PM ET Jun 26 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5PM ET Jun 26 $274 −$547 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 4AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 4PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $122 −$145 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10AM ET Jun 26 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $73 −$73 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 1PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET Jun 26 $342 −$342 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 5AM ET Jun 26 $261 −$261 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2AM ET Jun 26 $188 −$188 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 12AM ET Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $166 −$166 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9AM ET Jun 26 $241 −$241 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $23 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $56 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $34 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $46 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $66 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $40 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $69 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $58 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,824.57 · official $2,825.07 (match) · 3500 history records