Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd828…cc72
other · 45 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage446d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 0 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $6 $0 +6%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $7 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $8 $0 +4%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 14 $32 $0 -1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? May 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025? May 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 21 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 30 $11 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% $0
world 32% −$1
politics 14% $0
crypto 12% $0
weather 5% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 2m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $1 34h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 2d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $13 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $20 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $33 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $34 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $30 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $36 3d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 176d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 90¢ $6 350d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 99¢ $32 353d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? BUY No 91¢ $6 355d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $6 355d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 356d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 356d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 356d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 356d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $6 357d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 357d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 357d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 98¢ $7 357d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 98¢ $7 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 45 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records