Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd828…4cb1 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$32 (+7%) realized +$43 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$32
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$6
sports 30% +$23
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +29.5% +17.2% 57% 57% +11.2%
≤30d 12 +8.5% -1.9% 50% 50% +9.3%
≤90d 12 +8.5% -1.9% 50% 50% +9.3%
all 12 +8.5% -1.9% 50% 50% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 50% +9.3%
10% -11.3% 50% -1.1%
15% -19.8% 42% -10.7%
20% -27.7% 33% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)12 / 30
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 98¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+21%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+14%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $18 −$5 (-23%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 30¢ $6 $15 +$8 (+135%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ $36 $11 −$25 (-69%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$14 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $40 +$11 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $19 +$21 +111%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 11h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 39h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 39h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas SELL Fenerbahce 100¢ $52 39h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 73¢ $15 42h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 80¢ $25 42h
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $30 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 7d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $14 8d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas SELL Besiktas 95¢ $10 8d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas SELL Besiktas 95¢ $9 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 9d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $29 9d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 9d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 9d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas BUY Besiktas 51¢ $10 9d
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 9d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9d
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes $3 9d
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.08 · official $260.03 (match) · 52 history records