Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd82a…e1f2 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$1
other 35% +$3
sports 11% +$2
politics 6% +$1
economics 5% +$6
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 54% 0% -9.7%
all 60 +1.2% -8.5% 30% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage286d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $52 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $29 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $28 $0 +1%
Bowling vs. UMass Dec 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $12 +$2 +21%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $20 $0 -1%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Nov 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Oct 01 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $7 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 17m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $25 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $25 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $6 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $24 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.52 · official $3.52 (match) · 187 history records