Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd82c…b004 world 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%34W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$8
politics 22% −$2
other 21% −$12
sports 15% +$2
crypto 6% $0
economics 4% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 84 +0.1% -9.5% 30% 2% -10.0%
all 128 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses34 / 94
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage305d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $54 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $66 −$7 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 +$1 +4%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $58 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $107 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $27 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $68 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $3 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $72 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $202 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $34 +$1 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $59 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $111 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $28 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $5 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $5 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $25 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $33 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $32 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $32 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $32 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.00 (match) · 457 history records