Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd82d…d08f other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$3
other 20% −$1
politics 10% −$2
sports 7% $0
crypto 5% −$1
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 51 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage302d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $111 −$3 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $69 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $19 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 26 $3 $0 -10%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Sep 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "China" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 27? Aug 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Datacenter" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Aug 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? Aug 26 $19 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 22 $1 $0 -35%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $19 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $34 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $34 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $9 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $0 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $33 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $36 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.54 · official $33.54 (match) · 277 history records