Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd82d…7882 sports 907 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized −$57 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%298W / 605L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$105
14 days−$103
30 days−$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$541
crypto 14% +$70
other 4% +$69
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -4.7% -13.8% 43% 43% -18.4%
≤30d 594 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 29% -21.4%
≤90d 903 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 31% -12.4%
all 903 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 31% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 31% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 29% -20.8%
15% -26.1% 27% -28.5%
20% -33.3% 25% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses298 / 605
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions4
Markets (closed)903 / 907
History coverage49d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 903 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 52¢ 48¢ $83 $75 −$7 (-9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 49¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 54¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 429 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $5 +$49 +937%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 12 $5 +$3 +66%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $17 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$7 +232%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$6 +211%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$7 +232%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$13 +273%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $14 −$10 -69%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$7 +232%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$7 +276%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$8 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +116%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +66%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $5 +$5 +107%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 +$6 +126%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $10 +$6 +58%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $12 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $6 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $6 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $6 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $15 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $16 2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 91¢ $5 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 6¢ $4 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 84¢ $5 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 91¢ $5 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $2 3d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) BUY PortlandFire 48¢ $5 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $5 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $4 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 73¢ $5 3d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) BUY Dallas Wings 60¢ $1 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 23¢ $4 3d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) BUY Dallas Wings 60¢ $4 3d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) BUY Dallas Wings 57¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.74 · official $90.74 (match) · 2282 history records