Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd82e…bdc7 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%42W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$5
crypto 11% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses42 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage506d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 03 $63 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5,080 −$5 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jack Eichel win the Hart Trophy? Mar 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $63 31d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $8 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $60 62d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 93d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $53 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $49 151d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $38 183d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $43 211d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $25 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $45 274d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $16 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $42 303d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $16 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $42 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 363d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 366d
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 396d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.51 · official $62.51 (match) · 112 history records