Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd830…38b3
sports · 1192 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$209 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$219 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses482 / 687
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1169 / 1192
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day51.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 1169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$18
14 days−$51
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 31¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 50¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Tyra Caterina Grant 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Shuai Zhang 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs Galorys 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner LOUD 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BetBoom Team 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +69%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$3 -50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $4 +$3 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $4 −$3 -67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$3 -53%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $4 −$3 -60%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $3 −$2 -80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3 −$2 -61%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4 +$7 +156%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $3 +$2 +58%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $4 −$3 -84%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 +$3 +95%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $3 −$2 -74%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $4 −$3 -63%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $3 −$2 -68%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 −$2 -76%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $6 +$6 +95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 +$3 +84%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $4 +$5 +110%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $8 −$6 -75%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3 +$2 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 −$3 -70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $2 −$1 -64%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 +$2 +107%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $3 −$2 -81%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $3 +$3 +106%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +64%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $1 +$3 +244%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $2 +$2 +89%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $3 +$1 +46%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +66%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$2 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 55% −$84
crypto 38% −$112
politics 4% −$16
other 1% −$3
weather 1% +$3
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 31¢ $3 37m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 78¢ $5 42m
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Heretics 48¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $4 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 38¢ $3 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 17¢ $1 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $3 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 31¢ $4 11h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Los Angeles Sparks 86¢ $7 11h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 16¢ $1 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 15¢ $1 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $2 13h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $2 13h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 18¢ $2 15h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $4 15h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 47¢ $2 17h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 34¢ $2 20h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 14¢ $1 20h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 33¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 37¢ $3 21h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa SELL Katarzyna Kawa 11¢ $1 21h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 52¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 18¢ $2 24h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $3 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 18¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 24¢ $3 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 44¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 46% -14.6%
≤30d 928 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 42% -16.8%
≤90d 1169 -13.7% -21.9% 41% 41% -16.0%
all 1169 -13.7% -21.9% 41% 41% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 41% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 40% -24.0%
15% -36.2% 37% -31.3%
20% -42.4% 33% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.43 · official $13.43 (match) · 2119 history records