Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd831…d8e2 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$333 (+14%) realized +$338 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$143
14 days+$138
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$323
sports 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.6% -2.7% 83% 67% +21.4%
≤30d 12 +170.8% +145.0% 75% 58% +7.1%
≤90d 19 +100.5% +81.4% 58% 42% +6.4%
all 33 +56.9% +42.0% 58% 39% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.0% 39% +3.6%
10% +28.4% 24% -6.3%
15% +16.0% 15% -15.3%
20% +4.6% 6% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +115% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$6 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.97 per $1 lost it wins $4.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$338
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage133d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $315 +$135 +43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $40 +$5 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -76%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $195 −$4 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +8%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $11 −$3 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $175 +$19 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $169 +$25 +15%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? Apr 27 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 26 $162 +$4 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $132 +$88 +66%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 03 $24 −$4 -18%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 02 $22 −$8 -37%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 26 $32 −$5 -15%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 14 $72 −$22 -31%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $192 +$23 +12%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $121 +$26 +21%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $26 +$12 +45%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $5 −$1 -14%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 07 $7 −$4 -51%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 06 $9 −$3 -33%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $98 +$22 +22%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $46 +$4 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $105 +$6 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $25 −$6 -24%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $6 −$2 -42%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $26 +$12 +45%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $58 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $24 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $31 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $22 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $20 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $16 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $23 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.05 · official $27.05 (match) · 650 history records