Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd834…1d87 weather 173 markets active 4h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$490 (-23%) realized −$489 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%32W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$143
14 days−$352
30 days−$533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$534
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -44.4% -49.7% 21% 21% -52.8%
≤30d 172 -38.1% -44.0% 19% 17% -33.1%
≤90d 172 -38.1% -44.0% 19% 17% -33.1%
all 172 -38.1% -44.0% 19% 17% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 17% -33.1%
10% -49.3% 17% -39.5%
15% -54.2% 16% -45.3%
20% -58.7% 15% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$489
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses32 / 140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage28d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $15 +$8 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$51 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $74 −$71 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $51 −$30 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$55 +876%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$14 +462%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$33 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$9 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$10 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$19 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 80¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.02 · official $19.02 (match) · 498 history records