Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:32:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D8 0xd83a…75de sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$149 (-10%) realized −$196 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%78W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$97
other 44% −$38
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.4% -14.4% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 1 -5.4% -14.4% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤90d 5 -11.2% -19.7% 40% 40% -34.5%
all 178 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 43% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 43% -24.5%
10% -17.1% 42% -31.8%
15% -25.1% 40% -38.4%
20% -32.5% 37% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses78 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)178 / 181
History coverage192d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $146 +$46 (+46%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $57 $59 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $51 −$3 -5%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Lakers vs. Magic Apr 06 $10 +$6 +64%
Lakers vs. Pistons Apr 06 $20 +$17 +85%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 17 $5 +$5 +104%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Feb 17 $7 +$3 +47%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 17 $5 +$5 +108%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Feb 17 $3 +$8 +270%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 17 $5 +$7 +138%
76ers vs. Suns Feb 08 $5 +$6 +122%
Hornets vs. Hawks Feb 08 $10 +$8 +82%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Timberwolves Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Kings Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Magic Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Nets Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Magic Feb 07 $5 +$1 +25%
Bulls vs. Raptors Feb 07 $5 +$2 +32%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $5 +$2 +47%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 07 $5 +$3 +56%
76ers vs. Lakers Feb 07 $5 +$3 +61%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 07 $6 +$2 +39%
Knicks vs. Pistons Feb 07 $5 +$4 +85%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 07 $6 +$6 +92%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Feb 05 $3 +$4 +122%
Bulls vs. Bucks Feb 05 $3 +$4 +122%
Celtics vs. Rockets Feb 05 $3 +$4 +138%
Hawks vs. Heat Feb 05 $3 +$4 +144%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 05 $3 +$4 +144%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 05 $5 +$4 +75%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Feb 05 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $48 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $59 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 BUY Over 52¢ $50 62d
Kings vs. Hornets BUY Kings $10 87d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 54¢ $20 89d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Lakers 61¢ $10 90d
Grizzlies vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 68¢ $7 131d
76ers vs. Trail Blazers BUY 76ers 57¢ $6 131d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 37¢ $5 131d
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets BUY Cavaliers 49¢ $5 131d
Hawks vs. Timberwolves BUY Hawks 33¢ $3 131d
Kings vs. Pelicans BUY Kings 34¢ $3 131d
Bucks vs. Magic BUY Bucks 28¢ $5 131d
Jazz vs. Heat BUY Heat 69¢ $5 131d
Bulls vs. Nets BUY Bulls 53¢ $6 131d
Pistons vs. Hornets BUY Pistons 59¢ $6 131d
Pacers vs. Raptors BUY Pacers 26¢ $1 132d
Clippers vs. Timberwolves BUY Clippers 27¢ $3 132d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 23¢ $2 132d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Knicks 42¢ $5 132d
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers BUY Grizzlies 27¢ $5 132d
Cavaliers vs. Kings BUY Kings 17¢ $1 132d
76ers vs. Suns BUY 76ers 45¢ $5 132d
Warriors vs. Lakers BUY Warriors 47¢ $5 132d
Nuggets vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 30¢ $1 132d
Hornets vs. Hawks BUY Hornets 55¢ $10 132d
Jazz vs. Magic BUY Jazz 27¢ $1 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.44 · official $250.45 (match) · 280 history records