Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D8 0xd83a…2daf crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-7%) realized −$114 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$175
other 27% +$4
sports 4% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 24 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 50% +2.5%
≤90d 24 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 50% +2.5%
all 24 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 50% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 50% +2.5%
10% -16.2% 33% -7.3%
15% -24.3% 33% -16.2%
20% -31.7% 21% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 39¢ 50¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+104%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 32¢ 50¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 40¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -15%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $79 +$92 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$12 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $36 +$34 +94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$78 +307%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $96 −$58 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.14 · official $235.14 (match) · 93 history records