Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd83b…af3a sports 105 markets active 3d ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$305 (+4%) realized +$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%70W / 35L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$77
14 days−$131
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$92
other 10% +$192
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +75.3% +58.6% 100% 100% +58.6%
≤30d 42 +13.8% +3.0% 64% 62% -15.3%
≤90d 42 +13.8% +3.0% 64% 62% -15.3%
all 105 +4.9% -5.1% 67% 59% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 59% -6.3%
10% -14.1% 44% -15.3%
15% -22.4% 36% -23.4%
20% -30.0% 21% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$48 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses70 / 35
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage192d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$77 +75%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $106 +$13 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +156%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$88 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $131 +$68 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$5 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$29 +152%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $101 +$57 +57%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 30 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $1 +$6 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +53%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $29 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +44%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $100 +$18 +18%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $101 +$49 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $100 +$32 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $43 +$5 +11%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $11 +$20 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner May 27 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 06 $144 +$71 +50%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 04 $229 +$112 +49%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 30 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 29 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 28 $130 −$2 -2%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 28 $165 +$46 +28%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Jan 28 $160 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 72¢ $178 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $5 7d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 61¢ $202 7d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ $119 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $5 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $101 9d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $5 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 38¢ $2 12d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $290 12d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $202 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $200 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $131 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $39 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 13d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $49 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 14d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $24 18d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $3 18d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $103 25d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $5 25d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Deep Cross Gaming 48¢ $20 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $159 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 63¢ $101 25d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $118 25d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 85¢ $100 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records