Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D8 0xd83c…34f6 crypto 512 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$650 (+1%) realized +$646 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%255W / 254L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$80
14 days+$313
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$813
other 10% +$39
finance 8% −$182
crypto 5% −$127
politics 5% −$96
sports 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 +0.1% -9.4% 51% 49% -11.1%
≤30d 445 -1.4% -10.8% 49% 43% -10.5%
≤90d 509 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 40% -8.9%
all 509 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 40% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 40% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 38% -17.6%
15% -26.6% 36% -25.6%
20% -33.8% 34% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$646
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses255 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)509 / 512
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$126
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Iran full airspace closure by June 30? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $6 $10 +$5 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during S Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 33m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 47m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.96 · official $102.96 (match) · 3500 history records