Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:24:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd83f…ea08 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$700 (+12%) realized +$702 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate93%28W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$392
7 days+$586
14 days+$586
30 days+$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$702
world 2% +$3
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 33% +3.0%
≤30d 6 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 33% +3.0%
≤90d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 82% 27% +1.2%
all 30 +7.8% -2.5% 93% 33% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 33% +1.2%
10% -11.8% 10% -8.5%
15% -20.3% 7% -17.3%
20% -28.1% 0% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$18 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×20.2 per $1 lost it wins $20.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$702
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses28 / 2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)30 / 45
History coverage303d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 82¢ 76¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-8%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 55¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 57¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 34¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $211 +$11 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $400 +$18 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,608 +$365 +23%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$36 -59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,911 +$229 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $93 +$3 +3%
Will Gabriela Saporito be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $114 +$1 +0%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $1,508 +$114 +8%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +19%
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025 Jan 01 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bolsonaro leave Brazil in 2025? Jan 01 $6 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $2 $0 +4%
Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025? Jan 01 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $2 $0 +9%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $2 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $2 $0 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $3 $0 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $1 $0 +37%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $2 $0 +16%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $1 $0 +39%
Megaquake by September 30? Oct 08 $3 $0 +11%
Bolsonaro guilty? Sep 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Aug 28 $2 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Aug 28 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $211 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $199 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $165 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $24 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,584 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 74¢ $23 15h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,911 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $84 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 61d
Will Gabriela Saporito be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY No 100¢ $19 63d
Will Gabriela Saporito be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY No 100¢ $95 63d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 67d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $129 67d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $132 67d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 67d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,219 67d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 39¢ $8 70d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $2 70d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $6 70d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $1 151d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $26 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.46 · official $81.47 (match) · 116 history records