Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd83f…d2ce world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$2
sports 25% −$14
politics 19% −$7
other 14% +$22
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 19 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -3.0% -12.2% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 52 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 17% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 17% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 13% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 13% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage522d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $30 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $37 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $39 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $41 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $441 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $371 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $220 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $242 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Finland Mar 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Michigan vs. Ohio State Feb 16 $34 −$1 -4%
Solana above $190 on February 14? Feb 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bucknell vs. Lafayette Feb 16 $17 +$17 +100%
Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14? Feb 13 $4 +$8 +182%
Loyola Chicago vs. Richmond Feb 13 $4 +$6 +122%
Nebraska Omaha vs. San Diego State Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Southern vs. Alabama State Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
North Carolina A&T vs. Campbell Feb 11 $8 +$1 +15%
Stars vs. Sharks Feb 09 $6 +$2 +37%
Less than 350 Detainers Lodged in next ICE update? Feb 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Eagles beat the Commanders by 7 or more points? Feb 02 $3 +$4 +113%
Will there be less than 400k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 02 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 6? Feb 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $3 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $3 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $41 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $41 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $5 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $22 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $27 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $26 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.58 · official $39.58 (match) · 198 history records