Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd844…687b sports 215 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$5
other 25% −$3
politics 23% −$5
crypto 8% −$1
economics 6% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 5 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 215 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 200
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage173d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $32 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $43 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $182 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $82 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $136 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $162 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $64 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 04 $111 −$1 -1%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $137 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $101 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 04 $101 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $182 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $76 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $152 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 9h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $42 7d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 8d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $32 15d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $32 15d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 28d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 36d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 37d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $36 108d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $36 108d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $42 108d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $42 108d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 108d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 108d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $36 108d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $36 108d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 108d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 108d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 108d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 108d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 108d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 108d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 108d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $37 108d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 108d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $45 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 785 history records