Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D8 0xd848…5042 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,723 (-7%) realized −$5,723 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate95%72W / 4L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$14
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$2,957
economics 13% +$23
weather 12% +$22
other 11% −$2,861
world 2% +$34
politics 2% +$8
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 5 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 19 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 11% -7.2%
all 76 -1.4% -10.8% 95% 11% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 11% -15.5%
10% -19.3% 5% -23.6%
15% -27.1% 1% -31.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,273) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$1,777 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$5,723
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses72 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage270d
Avg bet$1,100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $261 +$6 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $127 +$7 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $253 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $252 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $126 +$1 +1%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $12 $0 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $193 +$1 +0%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $12 $0 +4%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $12 +$2 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $192 +$1 +1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 24 $85 +$3 +3%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 24 $85 +$20 +23%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $12 $0 +3%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $18 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) Mar 27 $57 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 09 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 16? Mar 09 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 19? Mar 09 $4,005 −$4,005 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $57 +$1 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $56 +$1 +1%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jan 24 $50 +$7 +14%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $100 $0 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 25 $4,255 +$17 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $787 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $864 +$36 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on November 24 Nov 25 $2,468 +$86 +4%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on November 23? Nov 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 23? Nov 24 $84 +$16 +19%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 23? Nov 24 $144 +$56 +39%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 23? Nov 24 $480 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Nov 24 $662 +$18 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 23? Nov 24 $822 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 23? Nov 24 $822 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 23? Nov 24 $983 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 21 Nov 23 $756 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on November 21 Nov 23 $1,271 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 21? Nov 23 $1,951 +$20 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $820 +$180 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $2,904 +$74 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 19? Nov 20 $188 +$12 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 19? Nov 20 $1,072 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 19? Nov 20 $1,158 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 19? Nov 20 $1,281 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $1,328 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $6,153 +$217 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $129 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $129 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 7d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $106 11d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 11d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $127 11d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $253 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $252 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? BUY No 99¢ $126 27d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 100¢ $193 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? BUY No 99¢ $192 51d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY No 97¢ $41 62d
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $85 62d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY No 97¢ $44 62d
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 66d
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 66d
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 66d
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 66d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 66d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 66d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 86¢ $1 66d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 86¢ $11 66d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $12 80d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $7 80d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 92¢ $7 80d
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $7 80d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $12 80d
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $12 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.00 · official $266.00 (match) · 270 history records