Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd849…93c5 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$633 (+14%) realized +$676 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$476
crypto 33% +$143
sports 14% +$166
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 56% +13.9%
≤30d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 56% +13.9%
≤90d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 56% +13.9%
all 16 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 56% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 56% +13.9%
10% -14.8% 56% +3.0%
15% -23.1% 50% -7.0%
20% -30.6% 38% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$112 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,023
Realized+$676
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $536 $502 −$34 (-6%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $105 $89 −$16 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? No 21¢ 24¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $412 +$298 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Jun 21 $394 −$38 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $262 −$255 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$110 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$75 -96%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Spain to score first v Jun 21 $151 +$71 +47%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$31 +31%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $67 −$64 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $255 +$416 +163%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$158 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $550 +$403 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 1h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? SELL Yes 48¢ $356 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $26 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy $3 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $67 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $106 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 11h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $101 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Spain to score first v BUY 67¢ $151 11h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $101 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $101 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,023.20 · official $1,023.20 (match) · 62 history records