Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd849…6ac7 sports 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,531 (+2%) realized +$19,778 · open +$5,753
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%79W / 43L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,936per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$5,569est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$108,804now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,959
7 days+$8,438
14 days+$9,981
30 days−$7,401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$13,707
other 26% +$6,957
crypto 12% +$24,307
politics 0% +$1,403
world 0% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +5.0% -5.0% 79% 71% -4.7%
≤30d 76 -10.1% -18.6% 61% 53% -10.4%
≤90d 122 -3.8% -12.9% 65% 58% -8.2%
all 122 -3.8% -12.9% 65% 58% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 58% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -17.0%
15% -28.9% 23% -25.0%
20% -35.9% 13% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$10,094) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,970 vs −$5,146 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$108,804
Realized+$19,778
Unrealized+$5,753
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses79 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$5,569
Open positions9
Markets (closed)122 / 131
History coverage73d
Avg bet$7,936
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 96¢ $39,347 $43,257 +$3,910 (+10%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 87¢ $17,478 $18,864 +$1,386 (+8%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $13,829 $13,535 −$294 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 74¢ $11,251 $11,176 −$75 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $8,231 $8,954 +$723 (+9%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Raphael Collignon 80¢ 81¢ $5,116 $5,238 +$121 (+2%)
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $4,043 $4,028 −$15 (-0%)
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ 76¢ $2,186 $2,132 −$53 (-2%)
Will Panama be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,570 $1,620 +$50 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $4,002 +$91 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $3,662 +$532 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,721 +$991 +17%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $4,660 +$1,008 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $887 −$887 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $12,127 −$9,422 -78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,764 +$190 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 21 $912 −$24 -3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,021 +$654 +32%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $12,791 −$8,983 -70%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $10,095 +$605 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,987 +$1,013 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,026 −$3,026 -100%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $15,130 +$6,300 +42%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $6,540 +$3,301 +50%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $34,105 +$4,514 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,023 +$602 +12%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $4,519 +$1,817 +40%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $3,443 +$1,721 +50%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $2,459 +$421 +17%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $3,138 +$865 +28%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $4,505 +$1,091 +24%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $3,683 +$817 +22%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $8,122 +$4,247 +52%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $3,778 −$1,278 -34%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $4,720 +$919 +20%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $5,610 +$2,859 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $2,565 −$2,565 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6,083 −$447 -7%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 12 $13,785 −$13,785 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 12 $5,765 −$2,875 -50%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2,068 +$503 +24%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $10,963 +$4,632 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 197.5 Jun 11 $5,947 +$652 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $6,607 +$676 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $19,540 +$1,379 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $129 −$97 -75%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $27,563 +$10,971 +40%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $7,491 −$7,491 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $44,703 +$1,445 +3%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3,718 +$1,054 +28%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $2,022 −$456 -22%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pierluigi Basile Jun 05 $11,015 +$2,763 +25%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Jun 05 $23,953 +$6,453 +27%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 05 $21,203 +$5,134 +24%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $23,282 +$11,265 +48%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $15,376 +$8,578 +56%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 05 $18,782 −$18,782 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $41,561 +$12,349 +30%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 04 $19,742 +$10,174 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $48 15m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $4 21m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $4 21m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $4 21m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $4 21m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $110 21m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $157 22m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $40 22m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 79¢ $911 22m
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $920 22m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 79¢ $1,762 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 78¢ $166 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 97¢ $34 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 97¢ $97 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 97¢ $9 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 97¢ $11 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 97¢ $290 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 98¢ $3,534 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 98¢ $6 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 98¢ $5 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 98¢ $17 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 81¢ $194 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 91¢ $91 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 87¢ $435 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 87¢ $2,652 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 87¢ $484 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 80¢ $4 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 80¢ $400 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 80¢ $2,413 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 79¢ $94 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108,803.70 · official $108,740.07 (match) · 794 history records