Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
D8 0xd84d…cc32 sports 555 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,790 (+15%) realized +$10,735 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%331W / 213L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Fees−$1,125est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days+$2,016
14 days+$2,183
30 days+$2,178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$4,179
other 1% +$2,066
politics 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +145.4% +122.0% 67% 56% +11.2%
≤30d 198 +50.5% +36.2% 57% 42% +0.4%
≤90d 544 +58.5% +43.4% 61% 41% -3.8%
all 544 +58.5% +43.4% 61% 41% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.4% 41% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here +29.6% 37% -13.0%
15% +17.1% 32% -21.4%
20% +5.6% 26% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +76% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$29 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$10,735
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses331 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$1,125
Open positions15
Markets (closed)544 / 555
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$126
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 64¢ 100¢ $56 $87 +$31 (+56%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $19 $30 +$10 (+55%)
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Toss Match Double Sri Lanka Winner Yes 1¢ 50¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+4454%)
New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5 Under 1¢ 39¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+3800%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Iwaki FC vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 4.5 Under 33¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-03-08? Yes 1¢ 49¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+4359%)
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 3¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1583%)
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? Yes 12¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+162%)
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? Yes 96¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Will KT Rolster Challengers win LCK CL 2026? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+314%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 22¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will FEARX Youth win LCK CL 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will BRION Challengers win LCK CL 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+328%)
Will SOOPers Challengers win LCK CL 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $52 +$28 +53%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$60 +303%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 +$26 +202%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $29 −$4 -14%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 +$97 +3139%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $146 −$69 -47%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$59 +190%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $91 +$45 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $139 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $536 +$5 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 +$36 +100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$39 +129%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$31 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 14 $32 −$1 -3%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $36 +$29 +79%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $34 −$28 -82%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$3 +32%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $772 +$8 +1%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$3 +37%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $159 +$2 +1%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$4 +16%
Overwatch: Solus Victorem vs Naive Piggy - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $0 +$7 +4756%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$39 +127%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding Jun 13 $1 +$31 +4526%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $33 +$67 +203%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $653 +$204 +31%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $1,053 +$28 +3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 +$18 +146%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $789 +$106 +14%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $1,329 +$788 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$39 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Grou Jun 11 $203 −$7 -3%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 +$3 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 66¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 63¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $26 18h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 64¢ $52 22h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 66¢ $20 23h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 99¢ $40 23h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 33¢ $2 23h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 33¢ $0 23h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 33¢ $2 23h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 32¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 68¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 67¢ $2 23h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 23¢ $9 24h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 26¢ $11 24h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 58¢ $7 26h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 58¢ $4 27h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 58¢ $18 27h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 97¢ $136 29h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 29h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 73¢ $14 29h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 28¢ $3 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 40¢ $16 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 30¢ $12 29h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 3¢ $0 33h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY LuneX Gaming 1¢ $5 33h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 3¢ $0 34h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 3¢ $0 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.57 · official $142.57 (match) · 3500 history records