Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd84e…dcaa crypto 403 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$639 (-12%) realized −$639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%168W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$37
14 days−$608
30 days−$679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$184
other 25% −$361
sports 11% −$488
weather 4% −$7
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -54.9% -59.2% 22% 22% -35.4%
≤30d 401 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 40% -21.4%
≤90d 401 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 40% -21.4%
all 401 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 40% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 40% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 39% -28.9%
15% -33.7% 37% -35.8%
20% -40.2% 35% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses168 / 233
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)401 / 403
History coverage24d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 401 Trades
no open positions (215 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $46 +$39 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $29 −$29 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -83%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $37 +$14 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$66 +290%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $29 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 25¢ $51 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 5d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $37 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1458 history records