trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +3.6% | -6.3% | 100% | 0% | -7.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 100% | 12% | -7.3% |
| all | 26 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 88% | 4% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 4% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 0% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -27.7% | 0% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -34.8% | 0% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | $54 | $55 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 10 | $277 | +$3 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $100 | +$1 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 06 | $152 | +$4 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $70 | +$7 | +10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $58 | +$12 | +20% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | May 06 | $58 | +$1 | +1% |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | May 03 | $57 | +$1 | +2% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Apr 07 | $391 | +$1 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Mar 09 | $146 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 1? | Mar 08 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 23-March 1? | Mar 08 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? | Mar 01 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | Feb 27 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 26? | Jan 27 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30? | Dec 26 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | Nov 29 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? | Oct 29 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? | Sep 29 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? | Aug 26 | $99 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Jul 25 | $99 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 21 | $99 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? | May 30 | $99 | $0 | +0% |
| Hawks vs. Magic | Apr 15 | $20 | −$1 | -7% |
| Thunder vs. Pelicans | Apr 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12? | Apr 12 | $103 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Palisades wildfire spread to Beverly Hills by Sunday? | Jan 13 | $22 | $0 | +2% |