Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd84f…dd03 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$432 (-14%) realized −$389 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days+$49
14 days−$145
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$173
crypto 28% −$4
other 18% −$65
tech 7% −$193
world 2% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 29% -7.0%
≤30d 27 -13.4% -21.7% 26% 26% -16.3%
≤90d 35 -14.7% -22.8% 26% 26% -19.7%
all 52 -15.6% -23.7% 27% 27% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 27% -24.2%
10% -31.0% 27% -31.4%
15% -37.6% 27% -38.0%
20% -43.7% 25% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$52 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 38
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage271d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 49¢ 40¢ $220 $177 −$43 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$50 +155%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$31 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$31 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$31 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$122 +374%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $107 +$346 +324%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $107 −$105 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $96 −$92 -96%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $165 −$162 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $70 +$192 +276%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $75 −$73 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $80 −$78 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 −$64 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $73 −$72 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $92 +$189 +206%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$41 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$41 +41%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $111 +$290 +261%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $45 −$43 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 19 $31 −$30 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $26 +$50 +193%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$27 +257%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Set 1 Winner: Ruse vs Andreeva Jan 23 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 23 $40 −$40 -99%
XRP Up or Down - January 23, 5AM ET Jan 23 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev Jan 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Medvedev vs. Marozsan: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jan 23 $20 +$49 +245%
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Jan 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 7PM ET Jan 23 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Borges Jan 23 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 6PM ET Jan 22 $26 +$25 +98%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 22 $24 +$72 +300%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 22 $71 +$54 +76%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 22 $70 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 5PM ET Jan 22 $25 +$21 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 49¢ $223 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $32 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $33 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $33 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $33 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $33 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $102 14h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $452 14h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 23¢ $107 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $107 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $96 17h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $165 18h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $262 18h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $70 19h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $75 39h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $80 40h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $70 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $65 44h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $73 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $281 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $92 2d
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $43 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $142 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $401 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $111 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.30 · official $177.30 (match) · 74 history records