Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd853…127e other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%12W / 47L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$13
other 10% −$12
politics 8% −$5
sports 2% +$53
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 47 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 13% -8.4%
all 59 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 10% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 10% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 10% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses12 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage609d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $17 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $114 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $127 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $21 $0 -2%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $8 +$7 +90%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $10 +$7 +64%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $41 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 31 $21 +$16 +75%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 27 $36 +$59 +163%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-20.5) Mar 25 $20 +$20 +99%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 21d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 22d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $19 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 26d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 27d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 28d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 32¢ $4 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $109 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $111 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.43 · official $72.43 (match) · 242 history records