Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd855…47d6 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-3%) realized −$30 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$77
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$64
politics 9% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.4% +4.4% 71% 71% +3.1%
≤30d 10 +11.8% +1.2% 70% 70% -6.8%
≤90d 11 +3.6% -6.2% 64% 64% -15.2%
all 12 +3.6% -6.2% 67% 58% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 58% -14.3%
10% -15.2% 50% -22.5%
15% -23.4% 33% -30.0%
20% -30.9% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$81 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage191d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $65 +$21 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 +$93 +152%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 +$35 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 +$26 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$12 +24%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 16 $144 −$92 -64%
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? May 07 $104 −$81 -78%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Jan 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $61 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $65 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $64 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 12d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $52 12d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $70 47d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 52d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 52d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 52d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 163d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? SELL Yes 5¢ $104 163d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 168d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.44 · official $93.44 (match) · 27 history records