Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd858…fa8e sports 31 markets active 2d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$30 (+9%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$38
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.9% -14.0% 54% 54% -24.9%
≤30d 31 +17.6% +6.4% 61% 61% -3.0%
≤90d 31 +17.6% +6.4% 61% 61% -3.0%
all 31 +17.6% +6.4% 61% 61% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 61% -3.0%
10% -3.8% 61% -12.3%
15% -13.1% 58% -20.7%
20% -21.6% 48% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage11d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +145%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$13 +65%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$18 +72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $17 +$19 +110%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $11 +$16 +145%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$8 +150%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +103%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +84%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $24 +$11 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 −$3 -54%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $4 +$3 +84%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +81%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$4 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $40 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 100¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 28¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 19¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 50¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $44 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 99¢ $36 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 26¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 34¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 34¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 36¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 44¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 44¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 49¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Legacy 100¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records